首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections
Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections

 

作者: Andrei Rogers,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期: Volume 81, issue 393  

页码: 48-61

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1986

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478237

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated, together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules. The parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible.

 

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