ALARM CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WITH DETERMINISTIC COMPONENTS
作者:
Stig‐Inge Beckman,
Jan Holst,
Georg Lindgren,
期刊:
Journal of Time Series Analysis
(WILEY Available online 1990)
卷期:
Volume 11,
issue 1
页码: 1-18
ISSN:0143-9782
年代: 1990
DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1990.tb00038.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
关键词: Prediction;performance evaluation;alarm system;modelling;flood warning system;level crossing;extremes
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
Abstract.A method for evaluating a predictor‐based alarm system is studied in this paper. The predictor is composed of a ‘deterministic’ component reflecting external information and a statistically based component for the error between the measurements and the external predictor. The aim of the predictor study is twofold:it is a means of interpreting the connections between the alarm and the catastrophe, and it can be used to select suitable alarm levels. As an application, the performance of a water‐level predictor as part of a flood warning system has been evaluated. The result of this analysis shows that an alarm system which operates when the predictor reaches a certain level will tend to give either too many alarms or alarms that are out of phase with the cata
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