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Importance-Weighted Marginal Bayesian Posterior Density Estimation

 

作者: Ming-Hui Chen,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期: Volume 89, issue 427  

页码: 818-824

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1994

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1994.10476815

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Conditional density estimation;Kernel density estimation;Markov chain sampling;Monte Carlo;Simulation

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Markov chain sampling schemes generate dependent observations {Θi, 0 ≤ i ≤ n} from a full joint posterior distribution π(θdata). Frequently, only certain marginals of this full posterior density are of interest; thus an interesting problem is how to estimate the marginal posterior densities based on the dependent observations {Θi, 0 ≤ i ≤ n} from π(θ data). We propose a new importance-weighted marginal density estimation (IWMDE) method. An IWMDE is obtained by averaging many dependent observations of the ratio of the full joint posterior densities multiplied by a weighting conditional densityw.The asymptotic properties for the IWMDE and the guidelines for choosing a weighting conditional densityware also considered. A bivariate normal model and a constrained linear multiple regression model are used to illustrate how to derive the IWMDE's for the marginal posterior densities.

 

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