Population-Distributed Personal Probabilities
作者:
James Dickey,
Peter Freeman,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1975)
卷期:
Volume 70,
issue 350
页码: 362-364
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1975
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1975.10479873
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
We use the Dirichlet distribution in a new application as a tractable model for the variability between personal prior probability vectors over a large population of persons. Given a common realized likelihood function, the resulting population distribution of coherent personal posterior probability vectors is analyzed and found to have mixed moments expressible as a one-dimensional integral. Implications for the study of the evolution of scientific knowledge are discussed.
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