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RECURSIVE GENERALIZED M ESTIMATES FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING‐AVERAGE MODELS

 

作者: Hector Allende,   Siegfried Heiler,  

 

期刊: Journal of Time Series Analysis  (WILEY Available online 1992)
卷期: Volume 13, issue 1  

页码: 1-18

 

ISSN:0143-9782

 

年代: 1992

 

DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9892.1992.tb00091.x

 

出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

 

关键词: Autoregressive moving‐average model;additive outliers;robust estimation;generalized M estimates;recursive estimation

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

Abstract.Outliers in time series seriously affect conventional parameter estimates. In this paper a robust recursive estimation procedure for the parameters of auto‐regressve moving‐average models with additive outliers is proposed. Using ‘cleaned’ residuals from an initial robust fit of an autoregression of high order as input, bounded influence regression is applied recursively. The proposal follows certain ideas of Hannan and Rissanen, who suggested a three‐stage procedure for order and parameter estimation in a conventional setting.A Monte Carlo study is performed to investigate the robustness properties of the proposed class of estimates and to compare them with various other suggestions, including least squares, M estimates, residual autocovariance and truncated residual autocovariance estimates. The results show that the recursive generalized M estimates compare favourably with them. Finally, possible modifications to master even vigourous situations are

 

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