Parameter estimation of macroeconomic systems under rational expectations
作者:
R. SHIVA,
K. Y. LEE,
J. A. PARKER,
期刊:
International Journal of Systems Science
(Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期:
Volume 18,
issue 6
页码: 1121-1137
ISSN:0020-7721
年代: 1987
DOI:10.1080/00207728708964036
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Despite the theoretical appeal of the rational expectations hypothesis, practical problems arising in the estimation and testing of models that incorporate it have yet to be resolved. Many alternatives have been proposed, but even though these approaches have been extensively examined and compared on a theoretical level, little is known about their estimation properties. This paper attempts to provide preliminary Monte-Carlo evidence on the empirical properties of the ‘reduced-torm’ and ‘structural-form’ estimators proposed as alternatives in the implementation of the substitution approach. When applied to the basic models, the two solution methods yield similar results. However, under autocorrelated errors, the structural form estimator performs much better. An alternative adaptive estimator is also examined and found to be far superior to the off-line estimation method when the parameters vary over time.
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