AbstractIn Italy solar thermal energy and energy from biogas are two possible means of reducing dependence on energy imports. Using a multiperiod LP model (MARKAL) the authors assessed the likely potential of both technologies under various circumstances. The study covered the period 1980–2005, in five segments of five years. It focused only on the subsystem of the energy end‐uses which can be substituted for by solar thermal and biogas technologies.The overall non‐renewable sources which can be saved in 20 years by these technologies total 450 PJ (1 PJ = 101 5J) if the fuel prices rise at 0 per cent average annual, 1450 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 4.2 per cent average annual, 1860 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 7.2 per cent average annual and 3780 PJ if the fuel prices rise at 15 per cent average annual.However the most competitive technologies appear to be solar water heaters used mainly in the private and commercial sectors and biogas systems used mainly in the agricultural sector.The study was carried out by APRE under ENEA (formerly CNEN) contract and was intended to serve as an analytical basis for establishing an overall development and demonstration strategy for end‐use renewable technologies i