A theoretical explanation is advanced consisting of a five stage process for the formation of polygonal ground which consists of stone borders forming regular hexagons and soil centres. One of these stages, namely the onset of convection in a porous soil between temperatures of 0°C and approximately 4-6°C, is studied analytically. Darcy's law is employed but variable permeability is allowed for and a parabolic density dependence on temperature is assumed. It is found that the theoretical predictions of the aspect ratio agree very well with field studies when a constant upper surface heat flux condition is imposed and an upwardly stratified permeability is chosen. Field study data, which agree very well with the theory, are reported in detail.