The effect of the abolition of capital punishment upon homicides in Great Britain:an application of intervention analysis
作者:
D. F. Deadman,
D. J. Pyle,
期刊:
Journal of Applied Statistics
(Taylor Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 20,
issue 1
页码: 191-206
ISSN:0266-4763
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1080/02664769300000016
出版商: Carfax Publishing Company
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
In this paper we examine the effect of the abolition of capital punishment on the homicide rate in Great Britain. Previous studies have used econometric techniques to determine whether the death penalty exerts a significant deterrent effect. However, econometric studies have been severely criticized for failing to provide robust results. The method of investigation used in this paper is that of intervention analysis. Some questions are raised about the proper way to measure the intervention effect in integrated models subject to trend changes. However, for both England and Wales, and for Scotland, a statistically significant intervention effect is consistently detected, although the extent of the effect is difficult to determine precisely. We also examine the effect of several ‘social stress indicators' (e.g. suicide and unemployment rates and violent crime) upon the homicide rate.
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