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A Formal, Decision-Theoretic Approach to Flexibility and Robustness

 

作者: PyeRoger,  

 

期刊: Journal of the Operational Research Society  (Taylor Available online 1978)
卷期: Volume 29, issue 3  

页码: 215-227

 

ISSN:0160-5682

 

年代: 1978

 

DOI:10.1057/jors.1978.49

 

出版商: Taylor&Francis

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

AbstractTraditional decision-making techniques only deal with a limited type of uncertainty: that which can be foreseen sufficiently to be expressed as a number of alternate moves between which nature will choose. A plan is formulated which specifies how the decision-maker should respond to nature's moves. Such a plan makes no allowance for uncertainty which could not be foreseen. Unforeseeable uncertainty can only be dealt with if the decision-maker's response to nature's moves is not fixed in advance but is itself uncertain. Flexibility is then defined as the entropy of that uncertainty. It is a measure of both the number of alternative sequences of moves which are open to the decision-maker and his attitude to them. Robustness is a way of trading off flexibility against expected value as estimated under foreseeable uncertainty. The cost of flexibility may be estimated and controlled.

 

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