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Exact Scheffé‐type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

 

作者: Richard L. Cooley,  

 

期刊: Water Resources Research  (WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期: Volume 29, issue 1  

页码: 35-50

 

ISSN:0043-1397

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1029/92WR01864

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model‐computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé‐type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model‐computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance‐covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at ea

 

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