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Hierarchical Spline Models for Conditional Quantiles and the Demand for Electricity

 

作者: Wallace Hendricks,   Roger Koenker,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1992)
卷期: Volume 87, issue 417  

页码: 58-68

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1992

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475175

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Hierarchical models;Nonparametric regression;Regression quantiles;Splines

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Methods for estimating nonparametric models for conditional quantiles are suggested based on the regression quantile methods of Koenker and Bassett. Spline parameterizations of the conditional quantile functions are used. The methods are illustrated by estimating hierarchical models for household electricity demand using data from the Chicago metropolitan area. The empirical results show that lower quantiles of demand (“base-load”) vary only slightly across residential households. This variability is difficult to explain using household characteristics. However, upper quantiles of the demand distribution vary considerably and are systematically related to household characteristics and appliance ownership. The implications of analyzing mean demand behavior rather than various quantiles of the distribution of demand are also discussed.

 

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