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Estimation based on one step ahead prediction versus estimation based on multi-step ahead prediction

 

作者: Paul V. Kabaila,  

 

期刊: Stochastics  (Taylor Available online 1981)
卷期: Volume 6, issue 1  

页码: 43-55

 

ISSN:0090-9491

 

年代: 1981

 

DOI:10.1080/17442508108833190

 

出版商: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers Inc

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

In this paper we consider a strictly stationary time series generated by a nonlinear autoregression. We are concerned with the estimation of the parameter θ0which specifies the autoregression Two estimators are considered, namely. θnobtained by minimising the sum of squarcs of the sample prediction emets of a one step ahead predictor and θnobtained by minimising the sum of squares of the sample prediction errors of a multi-step ahead predictor. It is shown that θnis a better estimator of θ0than θn.

 

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