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On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting

 

作者: Susmita Dasgupta,   Kajal Lahiri,  

 

期刊: Journal of Forecasting  （WILEY Available online 1993）
卷期: Volume 12, issue 3‐4  

页码: 239-253

 

ISSN:0277-6693

 

年代: 1993

 

DOI:10.1002/for.3980120306

 

出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.

 

关键词: Purchasing managers' survey;Qualitative response;Sectoral variability;Inventory dispersion;Cyclical turning point

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractQualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order, and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948–90. The Probability method we use generates time‐series estimates of cross‐section variabilities across firms. It is shown that thesediffusionmeasures have additional explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning p

 

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