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THE USE OF A DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION MODEL WITH ERLANG PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE ESTIMATION OF EARTHMOVING PRODUCTION

 

作者: S. D. SMITH,   J. R. OSBORNE,   M. C. FORDE,  

 

期刊: Civil Engineering Systems  (Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期: Volume 13, issue 1  

页码: 25-44

 

ISSN:0263-0257

 

年代: 1996

 

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970184

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Earthmoving;estimation;discrete-event simulation;validation

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many civil engineering works and as such they present an ideal opportunity for improved estimation forecasts and efficiency. This paper presents a computer simulation model which is based on the assumption that an earthmoving cycle can be broken down into its component parts which can be represented by Erlang probability distributions. Such a distribution can be generated on a computer and incorporated into a discrete-event simulation program. The development of the model and of a program to carry out simulation runs is described. The importance of model validity is discussed; results from a simulation cannot be relied upon if the model does not actually agree with the real system. The results of a validation exercise are shown which compares system output data (obtained from actual contracts in the UK) and model output data. Simulation output data is also shown in a graphical form which is intended to ease the use of the model on a site basis.

 

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