THE USE OF A DISCRETE-EVENT SIMULATION MODEL WITH ERLANG PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS IN THE ESTIMATION OF EARTHMOVING PRODUCTION
作者:
S. D. SMITH,
J. R. OSBORNE,
M. C. FORDE,
期刊:
Civil Engineering Systems
(Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期:
Volume 13,
issue 1
页码: 25-44
ISSN:0263-0257
年代: 1996
DOI:10.1080/02630259608970184
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Earthmoving;estimation;discrete-event simulation;validation
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Earthmoving operations are a major part of many civil engineering works and as such they present an ideal opportunity for improved estimation forecasts and efficiency. This paper presents a computer simulation model which is based on the assumption that an earthmoving cycle can be broken down into its component parts which can be represented by Erlang probability distributions. Such a distribution can be generated on a computer and incorporated into a discrete-event simulation program. The development of the model and of a program to carry out simulation runs is described. The importance of model validity is discussed; results from a simulation cannot be relied upon if the model does not actually agree with the real system. The results of a validation exercise are shown which compares system output data (obtained from actual contracts in the UK) and model output data. Simulation output data is also shown in a graphical form which is intended to ease the use of the model on a site basis.
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