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Estimating Products in Forensic Identification Using DNA Profiles

 

作者: DavidJ. Balding,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1995)
卷期: Volume 90, issue 431  

页码: 839-844

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1995

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1995.10476582

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: DNA profiles;Forensic identification;Interval estimation;Reliability;Weight of evidence

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

In many areas, such as reliability and forensic identification, it is of interest to estimate a product of unknown parameters, each of which is estimated from test data. The maximum likelihood estimator usually used in both applications is approximately unbiased but has an asymmetric sampling distribution, particularly when the sample size is not large. Consequently, most estimates understate the parameter value, often substantially, and this may be a serious drawback if “overoptimism” is highly undesirable. Further, widely used methods of interval estimation based on confidence limits suffer from a range of theoretical and computational problems. Alternative methods of estimation are developed and discussed, based on frequentist, Bayesian, and likelihood approaches.

 

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