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The Intrinsic Bayes Factor for Model Selection and Prediction

 

作者: JamesO. Berger,   LuisR. Pericchi,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期: Volume 91, issue 433  

页码: 109-122

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1996

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1996.10476668

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Asymptotic Bayes factors;Hypothesis testing;Noninformative prior;Posterior probability;Training sample

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

In the Bayesian approach to model selection or hypothesis testing with models or hypotheses of differing dimensions, it is typically not possible to utilize standard noninformative (or default) prior distributions. This has led Bayesians to use conventional proper prior distributions or crude approximations to Bayes factors. In this article we introduce a new criterion called theintrinsic Bayes factor, which is fully automatic in the sense of requiring only standard noninformative priors for its computation and yet seems to correspond to very reasonable actual Bayes factors. The criterion can be used for nested or nonnested models and for multiple model comparison and prediction. From another perspective, the development suggests a general definition of a “reference prior” for model comparison.

 

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