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Techniques for ascertaining the validity of large-scale production simulation models

 

作者: JEFFERYK. COCHRAN,  

 

期刊: International Journal of Production Research  (Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期: Volume 25, issue 2  

页码: 233-244

 

ISSN:0020-7543

 

年代: 1987

 

DOI:10.1080/00207548708919836

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Statistical method, and in particular, simulation is the most widely used operations research modelling approach now employed by industry and government. Validation of a simulation model is the procedure designed to determine whether the model is an accurate representation of the portion of reality under consideration. It is a process distinct from model building or debugging (although interrelated). In this work, strategies and practical numerical techniques for validating large-scale production simulation models (or any other large system) are detailed. An evolution of the central concepts of large-scale model validation is represented first. The distinction between model user's risk and model builder's risk is highlighted as an important development which alters the problem into a consideration of the basis a decision-maker should use in determining whether to rely on the outputs of such models. Two quantitative techniques which are applications of the Turing test and of mathematical programming are developed as recent advances within the traditional framework of this research area.

 

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