首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS
EVALUATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH UNCERTAIN DISTRIBUTION PARAMETERS

 

作者: HANPING HONG,  

 

期刊: Civil Engineering Systems  (Taylor Available online 1996)
卷期: Volume 13, issue 2  

页码: 157-168

 

ISSN:0263-0257

 

年代: 1996

 

DOI:10.1080/02630259608970193

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Reliability analysis;point estimate method;probabilities;probability of failure;time invariant;time variant;uncertain distribution parameters

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Formulations are presented for estimating probability of failure considering uncertainty of distribution parameters in time invariant and time variant reliability analyses. Based on the formulations the probability of failure can be calculated by recursively using the first order reliability method. Also, a more efficient approximate analysis procedure by using the point estimate method to estimate the probability of failure is given. In this analysis procedure, the point estimate method is used to discretize the uncertain distribution parameters in the time invariant reliability analysis, and to discretize the time-independent random variables and uncertain distribution parameters in the time variant reliability analysis. The probability of failure is then obtained by weighting the probability of failure conditioned at each of discrete points. The conditional probability of failure can be calculated by using first order reliability method, second order reliability method or any other convenient methods. The use of point estimate method to treat uncertain distribution parameters in calculating probability of failure is less computer time consuming than the one of recursively using FORM. Illustrative numerical examples of calculating probability of failure are presented.

 

点击下载:  PDF (409KB)



返 回