This synthesis paper presents a model for estimating the buildup of soil organic matter in various types of coniferous forests. The knowledge used was obtained from a well‐studied forest with good Iitterfall data, decomposition information and validation measurements of the soil organic matter layer. By constructing a simple model for litterfall, and the information on maximum decomposition levels for litter, we could estimate the annual increase in soil organic matter and extend this to encompass stand age. The validation measurement and the estimated amount of soil organic matter differed by about 8 or 26% over a 120‐yr period, depending on the litterfall model. The estimated increased storage of soil organic matter as a consequence of climate change was found to be drastic. We thus found that the soil organic matter layer would grow about four times as fast as a result of the needle component only. This estimate was based on a comparison between latitudes with a difference of 17°.