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A Dynamic Model of Purchase Timing with Application to Direct Marketing

 

作者: GregM. Allenby,   RobertP. Leone,   Lichung Jen,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期: Volume 94, issue 446  

页码: 365-374

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1999

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1999.10474127

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Generalized gamma distribution;Hierarchical Bayes;Panel data

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Predicting changes in individual customer behavior is an important element for success in any direct marketing activity. In this article we develop a hierarchical Bayes model of customer interpurchase times based on the generalized gamma distribution. The model allows for both cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity, with the latter introduced through the component mixture model dependent on lagged covariates. The model is applied to personal investment data to predict when and if a specific customer will likely increase time between purchases. This prediction can be used managerially as a signal for the firm to use some type of intervention to keep that customer.

 

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