A Dynamic Model of Purchase Timing with Application to Direct Marketing
作者:
GregM. Allenby,
RobertP. Leone,
Lichung Jen,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期:
Volume 94,
issue 446
页码: 365-374
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1999
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1999.10474127
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Generalized gamma distribution;Hierarchical Bayes;Panel data
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Predicting changes in individual customer behavior is an important element for success in any direct marketing activity. In this article we develop a hierarchical Bayes model of customer interpurchase times based on the generalized gamma distribution. The model allows for both cross-sectional and temporal heterogeneity, with the latter introduced through the component mixture model dependent on lagged covariates. The model is applied to personal investment data to predict when and if a specific customer will likely increase time between purchases. This prediction can be used managerially as a signal for the firm to use some type of intervention to keep that customer.
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