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Bayesian Reliability Analysis of Series Systems of Binomial Subsystems and Components

 

作者: H.F. Martz,   R.A. Wailer,   E.T. Fickas,  

 

期刊: Technometrics  (Taylor Available online 1988)
卷期: Volume 30, issue 2  

页码: 143-154

 

ISSN:0040-1706

 

年代: 1988

 

DOI:10.1080/00401706.1988.10488361

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Approximate prior;Bayesian probability bound;Binomial sampling;Beta prior

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

A Bayesian procedure is presented for estimating the reliability of a series system of independent binomial subsystems and components. The method considers either test or prior data (perhaps both or neither) at the system, subsystem, and component level. Beta prior distributions are assumed throughout. Inconsistent prior judgments are averaged within the simple-to-use procedure. The method is motivated by the following practical problem. It is required to estimate the overall reliability of a certain air-to-air heat-seeking missile system containing five major subsystems with up to nine components per subsystem. The posterior distribution of the overall missile-system reliability from which the required estimates are obtained is computed.

 

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