首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 A Condition for Independence of Permanent and Transitory Components of a Series
A Condition for Independence of Permanent and Transitory Components of a Series

 

作者: JamesM. Holmes,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1971)
卷期: Volume 66, issue 333  

页码: 13-15

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1971

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482211

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

This article derives a necessary condition for the independence of permanent and transitory components of a series when the permanent component is any weighted average of past, present and future values of the observed series and the transitory component is the difference between the contemporaneous observed and permanent values of the series. This restrictive necessary condition is derived assuming a most elementary stochastic specification of the observed series. A specific example of the restrictiveness of this condition is afforded if the permanent component of a series is generated by the Koyck or exponentially-weighted expectations model. For this leading example it is possible to derive the theoretical correlation between the permanent and transitory components of the series as a positive valued function of the coefficient of expectations adjustment. Finally, we discuss the importance of these results to Friedman's [3] permanent income theory and suggest a modification of that theory.

 

点击下载:  PDF (269KB)



返 回