Solution of recurrence relations with applications in epidemic control
作者:
DAVID GREENHALGH,
期刊:
International Journal of Systems Science
(Taylor Available online 1987)
卷期:
Volume 18,
issue 1
页码: 57-74
ISSN:0020-7721
年代: 1987
DOI:10.1080/00207728708963948
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A simple theoretical stochastic model is developed and used to calculate the probability of a major outbreak of a disease. This is suitable for a disease spreading in a large population subject to control by immunization. In the absence of immunization, the disease is assumed to spread by each person infecting a fixed number of others. Recurrence relations are derived for the probability of a major epidemic outbreak. These are solved by analytical methods and the resulting solutions explored numerically.
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