Estimating Multistate Transition Hazards from Last-Move Data
作者:
CarlP. Schmertmann,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期:
Volume 94,
issue 445
页码: 53-63
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1999
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1999.10473818
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Backward recurrence times;Censored data;Migration;Multistate demography;Open intervals;Survival analysis
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Following United Nations recommendations, many countries collect or publish internal migration data in last-move form, despite continuing uncertainty among researchers about how to estimate transition rates and probabilities from such information. “Last-move” data are a form of retrospective event history in which the only available information for each observational unit are the state at the time of a survey (ω), the last previous state (ψ), and the time at which the ψ → ω transition occurred. The statistical literature has addressed special cases, but there is still no general method for estimating transition hazards from last-move data. In this article I propose such a method, analyze its performance in a Monte Carlo simulation study, and apply it to migration data from Brazil's 1980 census.
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