Using a stochastic model for generating hourly hyetographs to study extreme rainfalls
作者:
PATRICK ARNAUD,
JACQUES LAVABRE,
期刊:
Hydrological Sciences Journal
(Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期:
Volume 44,
issue 3
页码: 433-446
ISSN:0262-6667
年代: 1999
DOI:10.1080/02626669909492238
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A stochastic model for generating hourly hyetographs has been developed using data from observed precipitation records to simulate rainfall patterns. This model makes it possible to study maximum precipitation distributions for normal or exceptional frequencies over long periods of time. The modelling provides observations (up to 10-year frequency) of quantiles similar to those observed by directly fitting a law of statistical distribution onto an observed distribution. Differences occur for rare frequency quantiles. Modelled rainfall frequency distributions behave in an over-exponential way (i.e. greater than strictly exponential) at infinity, yielding higher results than those obtained using standard fittings. One factor that is considered in modelling can explain this behaviour: the persistence of storms within a rainfall episode which causes high rainfall accumulation. Thus modelling the observed phenomenon provides an innovative approach in studying extreme occurrences.
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