Two-Dimensional Monte Carlo Simulation and Beyond: A Comparison of Several Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods Applied to a Superfund Site
作者:
Ted W. Simon,
期刊:
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal
(Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期:
Volume 5,
issue 4
页码: 823-843
ISSN:1080-7039
年代: 1999
DOI:10.1080/10807039.1999.9657762
出版商: TAYLOR & FRANCIS
关键词: variability;uncertainty;two-dimensional Monte Carlo;micro-exposure event analysis;fish consumption;Superfund
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Four different probabilistic risk assessment methods were compared using the data from the Sangamo Weston/Lake Hartwell Superfund site. These were one-dimensional Monte Carlo, two-dimensional Monte Carlo considering uncertainty in the concentration term, two-dimensional Monte Carlo considering uncertainty in ingestion rate, and microexposure event analysis. Estimated high-end risks ranged from 2.0×10−4to 3.3×10−3. Microexposure event analysis produced a lower risk estimate than any of the other methods due to incorporation of time-dependent changes in the concentration term.
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