首页   按字顺浏览 期刊浏览 卷期浏览 Calendar Effects in Monthly Time Series: Modeling and Adjustment
Calendar Effects in Monthly Time Series: Modeling and Adjustment

 

作者: WilliamS. Cleveland,   SusanJ. Devlin,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1982)
卷期: Volume 77, issue 379  

页码: 520-528

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1982

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1982.10477841

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: Trading day adjustment;Seasonal adjustment;Spectrum analysis;Graphics

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Most monthly time series that represent a total of some variable for each month contain calendar effects due to changing month length, day-of-the-week effects, and holidays. It is important to remove the calendar variation to allow an effective assessment of the variation due to important factors. New procedures for calendar adjustment are presented in this article. A plausible model for the daily data is used to derive a model for the monthly data in which the power transformed, month-length corrected data are equal to trend plus seasonal plus calendar plus irregular. The procedure for fitting the calendar component in the monthly model is (a) divide the aggregated monthly data by month length and multiply by 30.4375, the average month length; (b) choose a power transformation; (c) remove trend and seasonal components; (d) estimate the calendar parameters by robust regression. Since the model is only a hypothesis it is important to check its validity. This can be done by various residual plots in the regression analysis and by using spectrum analysis and time-domain graphical methods to detect residual calendar effects in the adjusted series. This approach is compared to the X-11 calendar estimation procedures.

 

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