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The Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution and Bayesian Analysis of a Point-Source Epidemic

 

作者: BruceM. Hill,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1963)
卷期: Volume 58, issue 301  

页码: 72-84

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1963

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1963.10500833

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Some unusual features of the likelihood function of the three-parameter lognormal distributionln(t – γ)∼N(μ, σ2) are explored. In particular, it is shown that there exist paths along which the likelihood function of any samplet1, …,tntends to ∞ as (γ, μ, σ2) approaches (t(1), – ∞, + ∞), wheret(1)is the smallest of theti, and hence that in a meaningful sense this is the maximum-likelihood estimate. Estimation is then considered from a Bayesian point of view, and some natural posterior distributions are explored. A statistical model for a point-source epidemic is presented, and the theory developed is used in estimating the time of onset and other parameters.

 

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