The Barlow-Scheuer Reliability Growth Model from a Bayesian Viewpoint
作者:
MartinC. Weinrich,
AlanJ. Gross,
期刊:
Technometrics
(Taylor Available online 1978)
卷期:
Volume 20,
issue 3
页码: 249-254
ISSN:0040-1706
年代: 1978
DOI:10.1080/00401706.1978.10489669
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Reliability growth model;Dirichlet prior distribution;Posterior mean;Assignable cause failure;System reliability
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
A model resembling the Barlow-Scheuer reliability growth model [I] is examined from a Bayesian perspective. A Dirichlet prior distribution is assumed on the three parameters of the model, i.e. the probability of an inherent failure, the probability of an assignable-cause failure, and the probability of success. The model assumes that a subsystem is tested in independent stages. At each stage, the posterior distribution is a Dirichlet distribution, or a mixture of Dirichlet distributions, depending on whether the investigator can identify with certainty which of the assignable-failure causes are removed when those discovered during testing are corrected. Methodology is developed for estimating reliability at the end of each stage of testing and for obtaining lower and upper bounds for system reliability. The Barlow-Scheuer data are reexamined using the approach developed herein.
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