The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions
作者:
RobertL. Winkler,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1967)
卷期:
Volume 62,
issue 320
页码: 1105-1120
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1967
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1967.10500920
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The personalistic theory of probability prescribes that a person should use personal probability assessments in decision-making and that these assessments should correspond with his judgments. Since the judgments exist solely in the assessor's mind, there is no way to prove whether or not this requirement is satisfied. De Finetti has proposed the development of methods which should oblige the assessor to make his assessments correspond with his judgments. An ideal Assessor is hypothesized and his behavior is investigated under a number of such methods (including those suggested by de Finetti and others). The implications of these methods for the theory of personal probability are discussed. Finally, although the present interest is primarily normative, the practicability of the methods is also discussed.
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