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Who bounces back? Physiologic and other predictors of intensive care unit readmission

 

作者: Andrew Rosenberg,   Timothy Hofer,   Rodney Hayward,   Cathy Strachan,   Charles Watts,  

 

期刊: Critical Care Medicine  (OVID Available online 2001)
卷期: Volume 29, issue 3  

页码: 511-518

 

ISSN:0090-3493

 

年代: 2001

 

出版商: OVID

 

关键词: intensive care unit;critical care;patient readmission;readmission;patient admission;patient discharge;illness severity;decision-making;hospital mortality;Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation

 

数据来源: OVID

 

摘要:

ObjectiveTo determine the influence of changes in acute physiology scores (APS) and other patient characteristics on predicting intensive care unit (ICU) readmission.DesignSecondary analysis of a prospective cohort study.SettingSingle large university medical intensive care unit.PatientsA total of 4,684 consecutive admissions from Janu-ary 1, 1994, to April 1, 1998, to the medical ICU.InterventionsNone.Measurements and Main ResultsThe independent influence of patient characteristics, including daily APS, admission diagnosis, treatment status, and admission location, on ICU readmission was evaluated using logistic regression. After accounting for first ICU admission deaths, 3,310 patients were “at-risk” for ICU readmission and 317 were readmitted (9.6%). Hospital mortality was five times higher (43% vs. 8%;p< .0001), and length of stay was two times longer (16 ± 16 vs. 32 ± 28 days;p< .001) in readmitted patients. Mean discharge APS was significantly higher in the readmitted group compared with the not readmitted group (43 ± 19 vs. 34 ± 18;p> .01). Significant independent predictors of ICU readmission included discharge APS >40 (odds ratio [OR] 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6–2.7;p< .0001), admission to the ICU from a general medicine ward (Floor) (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4–2.6;p< .0001), and transfer to the ICU from other hospital (Transfer) (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.3–2.3;p< .01). The overall model calibration and discrimination were (H-L &khgr;2 = 3.8,df= 8;p= .85) and (receiver operating characteristic 0.67), respectively.ConclusionsPatients readmitted to medical ICUs have significantly higher hospital lengths of stay and mortality. ICU readmissions may be more common among patients who respond poorly to treatment as measured by increased severity of illness at first ICU discharge and failure of prior therapy at another hospital or on a general medicine unit. Tertiary care ICUs may have higher than expected readmission rates and mortalities, even when accounting for severity of illness, if they care for significant numbers of transferred patients.

 

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