The development of a combined water demandprediction system
作者:
J. A. Hartley,
R. S. Powell,
期刊:
Civil Engineering Systems
(Taylor Available online 1991)
卷期:
Volume 8,
issue 4
页码: 231-236
ISSN:0263-0257
年代: 1991
DOI:10.1080/02630259108970631
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: water network;demand forecast;time series analysis;expert system;algorithms
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
This paper introduces a system designed to improve the accuracy of short term water demand forecasts by combining a proven mathematical prediction model with a knowledge base of information relating to non-cyclic abnormal demand occurrences. In part one of the paper, a prototype system is described that comprises a mathematical prediction module and a simplified knowledge base of FORTRAN rules. The results derived from the testing of the prototype show that the methodology is capable of providing significant improvements in prediction accuracy when the normal cyclic demand pattern is disrupted. Part two of the paper describes the steps taken towards implementing the elements that make up a full combined forecasting system in the light of the knowledge gained from building and testing the prototype.
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