Based on a systematic analysis of steel wear surfaces by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Auger Electron Microscopy (AES), a statistical model for friction and wear of steels is proposed. Three categories of contact are proposed; oxide-oxide, metal-metal, and metal-oxide. Each category of contact is related to a probability distribution on the real contact area. Using a new concept of nascently exposed metallic surfaces, this paper derived the mathematical expressions for the friction coefficient and wear rate by means of statistical methods. The calculated values are in good agreement with measured values.Presented as a Society of Trlbologists and Lubrication Engineers paper at the STLE/ASME Tribology Conference in St. Louis, Missouri, October 14–16, 1991