How a Court Accepted an Impossible Explanation
作者:
Joseph Gastwirth,
Abba Krieger,
Paul Rosenbaum,
期刊:
The American Statistician
(Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 48,
issue 4
页码: 313-315
ISSN:0003-1305
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1080/00031305.1994.10476089
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Contingency table;Law and statistics;Mantel-Haenszel statistic;Sensitivity analysis;Unobserved variable
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Although it is often true that the association between two variables may be due to some unobserved third variable, the plausiblity of such arguments needs careful examination. In 1987, a Canadian court accepted an explanation offered by the National Revenue Service of Canada that, in a test for promotion, lower pass rates among women than among men were explained by differences in rates of college attendance, a variable that was not directly observed by the court. We show that this explanation is not merely implausible. It is impossible. We conclude with a brief discussion of the role of a statistician in an argument involving an unobserved variable.
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