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RISK-NEUTRAL OPTION PRICING METHODS FOR ADJUSTING CONSTRAINED CASH FLOWS

 

作者: JOHNR. BIRGE,   RACHELQ. ZHANG,  

 

期刊: The Engineering Economist  (Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期: Volume 44, issue 1  

页码: 36-49

 

ISSN:0013-791X

 

年代: 1999

 

DOI:10.1080/00137919908967507

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.

 

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