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Model Selection, Transformations and Variance Estimation in Nonlinear Regression

 

作者: Olaf Bunke,   Bernd Droge,   Jörg Polzehl,  

 

期刊: Statistics  (Taylor Available online 1999)
卷期: Volume 33, issue 3  

页码: 197-240

 

ISSN:0233-1888

 

年代: 1999

 

DOI:10.1080/02331889908802692

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: 62J99;62J02;62P10;Nonlinear regression;model selection;bootstrap; cross-validation;variable transformation;variance modelling;calibration;mean squared error for prediction;computing in nonlinear regression

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The results of analyzing experimental data using a parametric model may heavily depend on the chosen model for regression and variance functions, moreover also on a possibly underlying preliminary transformation of the variables. In this paper we propose and discuss a complex procedure which consists in a simultaneous selection of parametric regression and variance models from a relatively rich model class and of Box-Cox variable transformations by minimization of a cross-validation criterion. For this it is essential to introduce modifications of the standard cross-validation criterion adapted to each of the following objectives: 1. estimation of the unknown regression function, 2. prediction of future values of the response variable, 3. calibration or 4. estimation of some parameter with a certain meaning in the corresponding field of application. Our idea of a criterion oriented combination of procedures (which usually if applied, then in an independent or sequential way) is expected to lead to more accurate results. We show how the accuracy of the parameter estimators can be assessed by a “moment oriented bootstrap procedure", which is an essential modification of the “wild bootstrap” of Härdle and Mammen by use of more accurate variance estimates. This new procedure and its refinement by a bootstrap based pivot (“double bootstrap”) is also used for the construction of confidence, prediction and calibration intervals. Programs written in Splus which realize our strategy for nonlinear regression modelling and parameter estimation are described as well. The performance of the selected model is discussed, and the behaviour of the procedures is illustrated,e.g.,by an application in radioimmunological assay.

 

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