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Revisions in ARIMA Signal Extraction

 

作者: Agustin Maravall,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期: Volume 81, issue 395  

页码: 736-740

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1986

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478330

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

关键词: ARIMA models;Noise extraction;Preliminary estimates;Unobserved components;Canonical decomposition

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

The problem of decomposing an observed series, assumed to follow an ARIMA process, into signal plus noise is considered. It is well known that the preliminary estimates of the signal will be subject to revisions as more data become available. For a general ARIMA process, the revision in the concurrent estimate of the signal is seen to follow a stationary ARMA process, easily derived from the overall series model. The results are extended to non-concurrent preliminary estimates. Finally, it is found that, except for a scale factor, the revisions are the same for all admissible decompositions and the canonical decomposition maximizes the variance of the revision.

 

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