Revisions in ARIMA Signal Extraction
作者:
Agustin Maravall,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 81,
issue 395
页码: 736-740
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1986
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478330
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: ARIMA models;Noise extraction;Preliminary estimates;Unobserved components;Canonical decomposition
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
The problem of decomposing an observed series, assumed to follow an ARIMA process, into signal plus noise is considered. It is well known that the preliminary estimates of the signal will be subject to revisions as more data become available. For a general ARIMA process, the revision in the concurrent estimate of the signal is seen to follow a stationary ARMA process, easily derived from the overall series model. The results are extended to non-concurrent preliminary estimates. Finally, it is found that, except for a scale factor, the revisions are the same for all admissible decompositions and the canonical decomposition maximizes the variance of the revision.
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