Pitfalls in Population Forecasts and Projections*
作者:
HaroldF. Dorn,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1950)
卷期:
Volume 45,
issue 251
页码: 311-334
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1950
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1950.10501127
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
This paper reviews the development of demography, and especially of population forecasting, and discusses the current demographic situation. The merits and limitations of several methods of making population predictions, and errors in demographic thinking are examined. The complexity of the problem of making forecasts either for short periods or long-time trends with the techniques now available is pointed out.
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