In the second of a series of studies designed to test the validity of a role‐choice model based on expectancy theory as a framework for the prediction of the preference to remain employed or to retire (the criterion), 317 older physicians employed in public clinics were interviewed. Analysis of several expectancy component configurations showed that the criterion depended, first and foremost, upon the differences between perceived instrumentalities of continued employment and of retirement for the attainment of outcomes. However, the prediction of the criterion by instrumentality differentials was strongest for physicians who were dissatisfied with their present jobs and indicated high job stress, and for those who had a lower evaluation of their own professional competence. The implications of the results and suggestions for their application in pre‐retirement guidance and counselling are discus