A system dynamics model of national cocaine prevalence
作者:
Jack B. Homer,
期刊:
System Dynamics Review
(WILEY Available online 1993)
卷期:
Volume 9,
issue 1
页码: 49-78
ISSN:0883-7066
年代: 1993
DOI:10.1002/sdr.4260090104
出版商: John Wiley&Sons, Ltd.
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
AbstractA system dynamics model reproduces a variety of national Indicator data reflecting cocaine use and supply over a 15‐year period and provides detailed estimates of actual underlying prevalence. Sensitivity testing clarifies the source of observed trends, such as growth in the compulsive use of crack cocaine and decline in the casual use of cocaine powder. Alternative scenarios with possible policy implications are simulated and projected for 12 years, and the results are assesse
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