Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review
作者:
KennethC. Land,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1986)
卷期:
Volume 81,
issue 396
页码: 888-901
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1986
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478347
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
关键词: Demographic projections;Cohort-component method;Time series models;Structural models;Limits to forecast accuracy
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally.
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