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Future Cropland Requirements and Projection Sensitivity

 

作者: W. E. Johnston,   G. S. Tolley,  

 

期刊: American Journal of Agricultural Economics  (WILEY Available online 1966)
卷期: Volume 48, issue 3_Part_I  

页码: 597-612

 

ISSN:0002-9092

 

年代: 1966

 

DOI:10.2307/1236863

 

出版商: Oxford University Press

 

数据来源: WILEY

 

摘要:

AbstractRanges are developed within which it is judged there are two out of three chances that 1968 demand and yield outcomes will occur. Five crop categories for 10 regions are considered. Drawing on a theorem pertaining to the probability distribution of a quotient, we use the foregoing results to estimate ranges for the regional‐commodity cells. Ranges for regional cropland totals and national totals for each crop category are estimated as the sum of approximately normally distributed variables. The 1968 ranges are compared with recent acreages to determine if it is likely that particular acreages will expand or contract.

 

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