REGIME CHANGES IN STOCK RETURNS
作者:
Nan‐Ting Chou,
Ramon P. DeGennaro,
期刊:
Journal of Business Finance&Accounting
(WILEY Available online 1994)
卷期:
Volume 21,
issue 1
页码: 93-108
ISSN:0306-686X
年代: 1994
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-5957.1994.tb00307.x
出版商: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
数据来源: WILEY
摘要:
This paper studies three sources of instability in parameter estimates of stock return models (1) time‐varying expected mean returns, (2) time‐varying return volatility and (3) changing institutional factors. We model United States stock returns as a function of a constant expected return and financing costs resulting from an institutional feature, delayed delivery. We examine two eight‐year periods and find that both contain a regime shift driven by anabrupt change in volatility. The first occurs during an internationalmonetary crisis amid important Watergate developments. The second is on the first trading day after the reappointment of Paul Volcker as the chairman of the United States Federal Reserve
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