AbstractAn attempt is made to model the transition from upper to lower bainite in steels, based on the hypothesis that bainitic ferrite grows with a supersaturation of carbon in solid solution. The theory involves a comparison between the time required to reject the excess carbon into the residual austenite by diffusion and the time required to obtain a detectable degree of cementite precipitation in the bainitic ferrite. If the precipitation process is relatively rapid, then it is assumed that lower bainite is obtained. The results are found to be in broad agreement with published experimental data.MST/1095