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On the Statistical Discrepancy in the Revised U. S. National Accounts

 

作者: F.Gerard Adams,   PeterE. de Janosi,  

 

期刊: Journal of the American Statistical Association  (Taylor Available online 1966)
卷期: Volume 61, issue 316  

页码: 1219-1229

 

ISSN:0162-1459

 

年代: 1966

 

DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10482206

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

As is well known, the U. S. national accounts contain a “Statistical Discrepancy” which serves to reconcile estimates ofGNPfrom the product and from the income side. While the Discrepancy is a measure only of overall consistency rather than of error, its magnitude and pattern over time do give some indication of the quality of the national accounts data. In the past, the Statistical Discrepancy has not always behaved as a quantitatively unimportant random error term—a disturbing sign with regard to theGNPstatistics. The presence of a systematic Discrepancy also causes difficulties in some specific problems. For example, it is necessary to assume a value for the Discrepancy in the identities of an econometric model when forecasts are made. The Discrepancy can also seriously affect estimates involving thoseGNPcategories, such as savings, which are customarily calculated as residuals with the consequence that the Discrepancy is allocated to them.

 

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