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The use of the Akaike Information Criterion in the identification of an optimum flood frequency model

 

作者: FRANCISM. MUTUA,  

 

期刊: Hydrological Sciences Journal  (Taylor Available online 1994)
卷期: Volume 39, issue 3  

页码: 235-244

 

ISSN:0262-6667

 

年代: 1994

 

DOI:10.1080/02626669409492740

 

出版商: Taylor & Francis Group

 

数据来源: Taylor

 

摘要:

For a long time now, the hydrologist has been faced with the problem of finding which of the many possible probability distribution functions can be used most effectively in flood frequency analyses. This problem has been mainly due to the insufficiency of the conventional goodness-of-fit procedures when used with the typically skewed flood probability distributions. In this study, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) goodness-of-fit test is used to identify more objectively the optimum model for flood frequency analysis in Kenya from a class of competing models. The class is comprised of (a) seven three-parameter density functions, namely, log-normal, Pearson, log-Pearson, Fisher-Tippet, log-Fisher-Tippet, Walter Boughton and log-Walter Boughton; and (b) two five-parameter density functions, namely, Wakeby and log-Wakeby. The AIC is also used in this study as a method of testing for the existence of outlier peak-flow values in the peak annual data used. A modified version of the chi-square goodness-of-fit test is also used, but only for the sake of comparison with the AIC.

 

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