AbstractIn 1986, Hampshire Local Education Authority reviewed its provision of non-compulsory education in Southampton and proposed the closure of a sixth-form college. The reason given for the closure was an expected fall in rolls, but the review appears to have been motivated primarily by financial pressures. This paper re-examines the evidence put forward by the LEA to forecast rolls. It is found that outdated methods, inadequate data sources and superficial analyses were used to produce the forecast. An alternative analysis shows that the proposed closure, if implemented, would run counter to the objectives of the reorganization. It is argued that the LEA chose to consult on the wrong problem, and that the real issue was a lack of funds in the education budget.