An earlier version of this article was presented at the 33rd Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, March 31‐April 4, 1992, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. This version makes use of data gathered and codified by Frank L. Sherman as part of the SHERFACS events dataset. My thanks go to Frank for his assistance and suggestions on this article, and to Joe Hagan and Roger Knudson for suggestions on the earlier paper. All opinions remain, of course, my ow