The Relative Efficacy of Investment Anticipations
作者:
MichaelK. Evans,
EdwardW. Green,
期刊:
Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Taylor Available online 1966)
卷期:
Volume 61,
issue 313
页码: 104-116
ISSN:0162-1459
年代: 1966
DOI:10.1080/01621459.1966.10502011
出版商: Taylor & Francis Group
数据来源: Taylor
摘要:
It is claimed that investment anticipations are very useful in short-term forecasting for predicting actual investment expenditures. This hypothesis is examined and the predictive record of the anticipations for the period 1952 to 1962 is compared to several naive models, a function of endogenous variables only, and a combination of endogenous and anticipatory variables. The authors find that anticipations predict better than naive models in general, but not at turning points. In the manufacturing sector the inclusion of anticipatory variables improves predictions made with a function composed only of endogenous variables, but the inclusion of anticipations does not improve similar predictions in the non-manufacturing sector.
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